Things that happen to toads...
Right now Atlanta's getting a meteorological dry-hump. All thunder and lightning, no rain. I have a few minutes to spare right now before I write a book chapter about argumentation. (Come to think of it, I might go outside and manually test that lightning rod.)
A few bits of news. My guitar is still awesome, thanks for asking. I had so much fun tonight. I was struck by inspiration, not lightning, earlier when I had a neat sound and thought...that delay goes on too long, so I dialed it back and I got this doubling of the notes at about .2 secs (I'm guessing). I was running it through the Big Muff (fuzz pedal) and had forgotten to turn off the light chorus pedal, and I got this really fun sound. I wondered what this would sound like if I bounced around on a wah pedal with it, and it was pretty wild for a minute there. I did find something sort of cool just by being lazy, that you get this ethereal midrange tone if you just leave the wah pedal on but walk away from it when it's at mid-sweep. The guitar sounds...farther away. I don't know if that makes sense. When I added yet another pedal, a Digitech Whammy set to octave, it sounds like you're shooting a crossbow bolt through a dog, so I gave up on that pretty quick.
I got a letter from Leonard Pitts today. He thought I made too much out of his comment that there are no atheists in foxholes in a recent article on Bobby Jindal (I wrote a letter) and then suggested that it there was some literal truth to the phrase ("there are few atheists in foxholes," he thought he might write), so it was a mixed message. Mostly it was my fault for taking him seriously, he seemed to think, which is odd for someone who I presume would like to be taken seriously.
I'm going to be on the radio later this week (yay) sharing my expertise on conspiracy theories. I got a list of questions from the person who'll be interviewing me. One of them was "Are there any conspiracy theorists who have been right?" I can't think of one. Not on purpose. Not by following evidence. I mean, if you follow evidence, you become a journalist or a historian. It's like if your alternative medicine is shown to actually do something, then, by definition, it becomes actual medicine. But if you can think of a counterexample, let me know.
HJ







7 comments:
What about the one where FDR had foreknowledge of Pearl Harbor.
It depends what you mean by conspiracy theory. There are lots of conspiracies all the time. Watergate was a conspiracy. Iran-Contra was a conspiracy.
Watergate was unravelled by those folks you mentioned in your post: Journalists.
A lot of government conspiracies unravel due to loose ends or too many people in the know. I don't remember how we found out about Iran-Contra.
I think what you're really asking is whether there have been any occasions where the subculture of conspiracy loons has ever been right about anything. I can't think of one. I suspect that might be because the types of conspiracies they dream up are far more complex than actual conspiracies require.
Watergate was just a burglary and a coverup. The ramifications were huge, but the acts were simple.
Iran-Contra was a bit more complex, and beautiful in a perverse way. They were able to sell missiles to Iran and use the profit to fund the Contras! A two-fer! I think that might be an aberration as far as conspiracies go. Most are simple crimes and a coverup.
Wow. Is DM poe or what? Talk about sounding like a dog being shot by a bolt from a crossbow...
"Un-indicted co-conspirator" is a phrase from the Watergate era, so I imagine Watergate could be considered a conspiracy. But it was unraveled by journalism and a secret inside source. It did not have the juice prior to its revelations that mark other conspiracies. One of the hallmarks is the bigness of conspiracies that are theorized. A little cabal of insiders seem to hatch these stupid plans that are almost always found out. Conspiracy theorists worth their salt grow the number of participants exponentially, sometimes even over generations (Roswell and Area 51 for example). Looking at examples with this particular trademark, I know of none that have been proven correct.
Of course I assume you're asking about these kinds of paranoid popular conspiracy theories (9-11 Truthers, Birthers, Moon hoaxers, alien cover-ups, Pearl Harborites, Marilyn Monroe was murdered/John Kennedy assassinites, Bing isn't really a toadites, etc.)
@Ryan Roosevelt did not have foreknowledge of Pearl Harbor. Roosevelt was more focused on Europe. He did not want the Japanese to attack. He could not have anticipated that Hitler would declare war on the US, because Hitler was a crazy person. Two researchers, Hanyok and Mowry, recently released a study of the cryptography (and they're with the NSA), and they concluded that there was nothing remotely like actionable information about Pearl Harbor that could have been used to prevent the attack. It's called, "West Wind Clear". You can also look at just the closing chapter, "The Winds Message and the Historical Process" here. They have traced the rumor back to Cpt. Laurence Frye Safford. His concerns were addressed and debunked in Congressional hearings right after the war, I believe.
@Everyone else. There are such things as conspiracies, of course. Something is happening at Area 51. Just not aliens. I still can't think of a conspiracy theory (one that followed crap evidence) and was right.
HJ
That was my underhanded way of getting you to do the research of debunking it for me, as I'd never seen it properly dispelled before.
Dastardly! Actually, I have done a lot of work professionally on WWII, so it's a thing of mine. No problem at all.
HJ
what happens when you LOSE Pascal's Wager...
http://www.peterkreeft.com/topics/pascals-wager.htm
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you FIGHT PAPER MONSTERS...
the blood and bodies of the atheist movement...
you mofos killed MICKEY MOUSE!!!!
this has more TRUTH then what Dawkins, Randi, Harris, Myers, and Shermer combined have said in their entire lives...
http://www.youtube.com/watch#!v=5R2wE8Sduhs&playnext_from=TL&videos=hht1U_19anc&feature=rec-LGOUT-exp_fresh%2Bdiv-1r-3-HM
they tried to BULLDOZE the entire METAPHYSICAL DIMENSION...
they LOST THE WAR......
you have FORFEIT YOUR SOUL, shermer... you have become an object in the material world, as you WISHED...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eUB4j0n2UDU
http://farm1.static.flickr.com/7/11792994_ffaaee87fa.jpg
we're gonna smash that TV...
They had become ENEMIES OF THE PEOPLE AND OF GOD...
you pushed too much and *CROSSED THE LINE*
degenerates (PZ) or children (HEMANT) - ATHEISTS!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bRRg2tWGDSY
do you have anything to say, you STUPID LITTLE F*CKER?
how about I tell you, Mr. Shermer, EVERYTHING YOU THINK ABOUT THE WORLD is
*WRONG*
THE BOOBQUAKE - 911!
http://dissidentphilosophy.lifediscussion.net/philosophy-f1/the-boobquake-911-t1310.htm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sx7XNb3Q9Ek
RUN, ATHEISTS, RUN!!!
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